The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004

We construct estimates of external assets and liabilities for 145 countries for 1970-2004. We describe our estimation methods and key features of the data at the country and global level. We focus on trends in net and gross external positions, and the composition of international portfolios. We document the increasing importance of equity financing and the improvement in the external position for emerging markets, and the differing pace of financial integration between advanced and developing economies. We also show the existence of a global discrepancy between estimated foreign assets and liabilities, and identify the asset categories accounting for this discrepancy.     

FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets

In this paper, we examine the various links among foreign direct investment (FDI), financial markets, and economic growth. We explore whether countries with better financial systems can exploit FDI more efficiently. Empirical analysis, using cross-country data between 1975 and 1995, shows that FDI alone plays an ambiguous role in contributing to economic growth. However, countries with well-developed financial markets gain significantly from FDI. The results are robust to different measures of financial market development, the inclusion of other determinants of economic growth, and consideration of endogeneity.     

The market microstructure of central bank intervention

How quickly do central bank intervention operations impact the foreign exchange market? And, do intra-daily market conditions influence the effectiveness of central bank interventions? This paper uses high-frequency intra-daily data to examine the relationship between the efficacy of intervention operations and the “state of the market” at the moment that the operation is made public. The results indicate that some traders typically know that the Fed is intervening at least 1 h prior to the public release of the information in newswire reports. Also, the evidence suggests that the timing of intervention operations matters—interventions that occur during heavy trading volume, that are closely timed to scheduled macro announcements, and that are coordinated with another central bank are the most likely to have large effects.     

Moving up or moving out? A unified theory of R&D, FDI, and trade

This paper introduces industrial heterogeneity in R&D productivity into the quality-ladder model of the North-South trade to study how firms' choices made between R&D and foreign direct investment (FDI) vary across industries, and how such choices consequently determine the evolution of comparative advantage and trade. It shows that trade reveals product-cycle dynamics in medium-tech industries but remains static in others. High-tech industries experience continued innovation in the North with no migration of product lines. Medium- and low-tech industries migrate South via FDI to exploit low production costs with the South then replacing the North as the dominant exporter. However, medium-tech industry production eventually shifts back to the North when superior products are marketed by Northern innovators, making the end of one complete product cycle and the start of the next. Because of marginal R&D productivity, the relocated low-tech industries are not presented with the option of moving up and thus stagnate.     

全球国际直接投资发展的态势、动因与影响

文章从总体态势、地域分布、国家层次、投资方式、产业高度等方面分析了20世纪70年代以来国际直接投资发展的主要特征,并从制度、技术、政策等方面探讨了推动这种态势形成的基本动因,总结了世界FDI发展对全球国际生产、贸易、分工格局的主要影响.     

FDI与区域就业转移:一个新的分析框架

改革开放以来,特别是进入九十年代以后,随着经济全球化影响的加深和FDI的大量进入,我国的劳动就业在总量增长缓慢的情况下呈现出明显的区域分布不均和替代特征。这种区域就业差异与FDI的区域偏向和选择有很大的关联性。其作用机理在于FDI的直接效应和间接效应带来了区域间就业机会特别是非农就业机会的转移。FDI→就业转移→区域就业差异是解释我国转型时期外资与区域就业关系的一个新的分析框架。     

外国直接投资技术外溢理论研究综述

外国直接投资技术外溢是外国直接投资内含的人力资本、研发、管理经验等无形资本的非自愿性扩散。本文以时间为线索,概括叙述了20世纪60年代到90年代外国直接投资技术外溢理论的研究方法及主要观点,重点分析了21世纪以来外国直接投资技术外溢理论的最新研究进展,并客观评估了我国“以市场换技术”的战略效应,得出了几点启示。     

从历史视角看美国贸易政策的本质

美国的贸易政策是指能直接影响美国进出口地理方向和进出口商品结构、跨国投资的政府措施。必须从经济和政治结合的角度去理解美国的贸易政策,美国贸易政策的本质是实现美国国内外经济利益和政治利益的工具或手段。贸易保护主义和贸易自由化都是美国利益的实现方式。认识美国贸易政策的本质为认识中美贸易方面存在的问题提供一种思路。     

我国高比例加工贸易引发的思考

我国已经成为世界第三大贸易国,但在根据原产地规则计算的进出口总额中,加工贸易的比例正迅速增加,本文从进出口贸易的统计数据出发,指出这一现象源自外商投资企业贸易额占我国贸易额的高比例以及其自身贸易方式中加工贸易的高比例,分析了这种外商投资企业主导进出口贸易,且以加工贸易为主的格局对我国经济的短期和长期影响,就我国今后吸引外资的方向和国内企业的发展做了进一步探讨。     

国际贸易与技术进步关系初探

本文主要从国际贸易与技术进步的关系的角度探讨技术进步的决定因素,在柯布—道格拉斯生产函数的基础上,用劳动生产率的增长代表技术进步的变化,同时将外贸依存度和外资依存度作为衡量技术进步的内生变量,采用1985-2004年的年度数据进行计量分析。本文的模型结论如下:(1)资本对经济增长的贡献要远大于劳动力的贡献;(2)国内投资对技术进步的促进作用要大于外商直接投资。因此,要想更快地发展我国经济,一方面要加大资本的投入,另一方面要加强自主创新,尤其是国内技术的自主创新,加强引进技术的消化吸收和利用。